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Page 18 of 82
What to Make of Mexico's Civil War
January 14, 2009
The dictionary definition of civil war is a "war between factions within the same country". Over the last couple of decades, successive Mexican governments allowed organized crime to carve out niches and coopt parts of the country's public security apparatus. The upshot has been that an alarming number of young Mexican males have made crime a career, spawning a subculture that includes music (narcocorridos), and even a pseudo-religion (la "Santa Muerte"). This cult of violence represents an enemy faction that must be stopped. But, for that to happen, we have to do away with the quaint notion that this is a game between cops and robbers; that it's about stopping this or that cartel. We have to realize that this is, in fact, a low-intensity civil war which must be fought on every level, including ideology.
This war is, in part, a consequence of Mexico's transition to an open, democratic society over the last 20 years. Unlike Chile, Spain, Taiwan and South Korea, Mexico's (semi-) authoritarian regime did not strengthen the country's institutions before relinquishing power, except in regards to its electoral system. In fact, in many ways, the PRI (and Fox) simply decided to let go of the reigns, creating a vacuum that was quickly filled by organized crime.
It is also a result of demographics: an unprecedented number of young males have been coming of age as a result of the 70s and 80s population explosion. As bad luck would have it, they have reached their most dangerous years (18-35) during weak economic times, giving them further incentives to turn to crime. The fact that Mexico will fall below the "replacement" level of fecundity this year (2.08 children per woman, under the 2.1 replacement level) will mean that both migration and crime will probably subside in the coming decades.
But, for the moment, we're stuck with this sad state of affairs. In order to deal with it, we must finally take to heart a number of important lessons.
Lesson 1: Mexico is not a failed State, as Federico Reyes Heroles pointed out in a recent editorial. A failed state means that basic public services are not provided and that the State is unable to establish control over its territory. Your correspondent has lived a total of 21 years in Mexico and has never borne witness to a gun being fired in crime and, despite the nose-thumbing and the bravado, there is no territory that can credibly be thought of as being openly in "enemy hands". The country's decent majority can still be recruited to help in this conflict.
Lesson 2: It is time to take this war more seriously. While Mexico is not a "failed State", it is in a lot of trouble. Local police forces should be considered soldiers in this civil war. This means that they must be tried in courts-martial. Military and police forces need to be radically purged after extensive undercover investigative work. Justice for dirty cops should be swift and harsh and they should not be seen as corrupt public servants, but enemies of the State. In war, symbolism is everything. Trials should be public and criminals should be made an example of. Television should exalt the heroes and shame the miscreants, in-line with a comprehensive media and propaganda strategy.
Lesson 3: Criminals live among us and they must be identified. The time has come for a unified national database with tamper-proof identification cards. They should be carried at all times by every man, woman and child of Mexican nationality.
Lesson 4: Target cities should be chosen one by one; extensive, stealthy investigative work done and, when troops are ready to "take" a town, martial law should be imposed. Those previously identified should be arrested in large sweeps where targets have been vetted by both the Executive and special members of the judiciary. Video surveillance systems with face recognition technology should be installed with command centers manned by both the police and civilians (perhaps chosen by local business groups). Vehicle barriers (like those spikes that are flat when unused, but can be raised when needed) should be placed at all points of access to strategic commercial/residential areas. Crminals who act within specific areas should have no way to escape.
In previous editions, this column has identified numberous ways for the US to help. Intelligence is the main area, but Congress could pass a law making it a felony to sell firearms to foreign nationals, for example. Mexican-Americans could also be "recruited" to help, even doing police duties on both sides of the border.
It used to be that the drug "war" label was demagogic hyperbole. No longer. It's time for all of us to pick a side and fight wherever we can to make a difference.
For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page
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