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Page 32 of 82
What to Make of the New Malaise
October 8, 2008
In 1979 President Jimmy Carter spoke to his country about a "crisis of confidence". Despite never having mentioned the word, this came to be known as the "malaise" speech. Malaise is a word from the French meaning "a general sense of depression, or unease". Then, as now, oil prices were too high and Americans felt that the country was going "in the wrong direction." Then, as now, the country was in a funk.
Mexico is also feeling down. Over the last few weeks even those columnists who are generally more sanguine, like Reyes Heroles and Silva-Herzog Márquez, have sounded more worried. In the US, people are depressed about the economy, while Mexicans are in shock over the escalation of violence, including our first terrorist act of the new millennium. In both places, there is a sense that all is not well.
The national "mood" affects much of what we do. The successful Sinaloan professional isn't going to invest in a new business in Culiacán if there's a drive-by shooting on his doorstep. The middle manager in Peoria isn't going to take out a mortgage to buy a house if he feels that his job is in jeopardy. The national mood can even make you give up on your country. Your correspondent has recently spent time in the suburbs of Houston and the number of Mexican yuppies fleeing from Mexico's crime by moving to Texas is a tragic sign of how depression can turn into total resignation.
But often the national mood is just another manifestation of the cycles that are present in everything around us. There are moments of "irrational exuberance" that lead to booms and "crises of confidence" that lead to busts. These moods are often independent of the actual pressures on society. The sense of mission and unity shown during World War II, for example, kept the national mood "high" despite the tremendous sacrifices that were being made. Today, people are as rich as they have ever been and the planet is generally peaceful, but people are living with an uncomfortable sense of dread.
In 1979 President Carter asked his country to look inward and stop worshipping "self-indulgence". He said that Americans had "discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning". But self-criticism needs leadership to provide an outlet for the pent up energy that is the fruit of our frustration. It is very possible that the global middle class is living beyond way beyond its means. But it is not enough to tell it so, there has to be a plan.
Man without a plan
President Carter failed to communicate a purpose. Hence, Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 44 states during the 1980 elections. Candidate Reagan didn't offer a sophisticated plan, per se, but he did talk about a new dawn. "It's morning in America", he told them, and the country responded with a collective "hey, maybe he's right". In the year 2000, Vicente Fox told Mexicans to believe in themselves and kick the PRI out of office. But, devoid of the institutional infrastructure that gives continuity to the American system, Mr. Fox could not materialize his good intentions. Today, President Calderón's high-quality speeches give the Executive much-needed gravitas, but he is failing to convince Mexicans that he can win the war he has gotten them into.
In both countries, we have yet to see leadership that links the insight of a Jimmy Carter with the fresh-faced optimism of a Vicente Fox and the execution of a Michael Bloomberg. But national moods have a way of pulling 180s. During the Salinas regime, Mexicans came to believe that Mexico was well on its way to being a fully developed "first world" nation. During the 1950s, a time when Americans were much poorer and their minorities much more oppressed, technology held out the promise of an ever-better future. It was a promise that people wholeheartedly believed.
Of course, the future ain't what it used to be. But with a little effort and leadership, we can get back our collective chutzpah. President Kennedy set forth a cool challenge in the 1960s to get to the moon within ten years. Why not do the same thing for carbon emissions and global warming? Mexico's Calderón could offer to eradicate corruption in the 4 years left of his term, with serious oversight, penalties and incentives. While we're at it, we could reduce cruelty to animals for good karmic measure. That's something both countries could do as we fight the obesity and junk food epidemic.
Whatever the priority, the national mood needs a little leadership Prozac. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like our doctors know how to prescribe the right medicine. Let's offer them some suggestions.
For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page
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