Opinion Archive

What to Make of this Odd, but Hopeful Election

June 11, 2008

This long primary season has been very strange. Both parties nominated candidates who were considered among the least likely to win at the beginning of their internal elections. The Republicans ended up with the most centrist candidate, choosing what many believe was the only person in their lineup who could could win, given the country's anti-Republican mood. Meanwhile, the Democrats made history with the least conventional candidate ever.

For Mexico, the process should provide a big sigh of relief: both parties chose the candidates with the best positions with respect to Mexico and Mexicans. Even when Senator Clinton was narrowly beaten it seemed like good news for Mexico. Despite her intelligence and pragmatism, it had become obvious that a Clinton presidency would have been much more beholden to special interests on the Left than Senator Obama, meaning more protectionism and economic nationalism. By contrast, Barack Obama's power is much more centered on his person, giving him the opportunity to act according to his judgment.

Hope versus pragmatic optimism

In traditional, pragmatic, terms, Mexico's candidate is border-state John McCain. He will not question NAFTA and he has the same law enforcement vision of fighting narco-traffic as President Calderón. In that sense, whatever happens to the current Mérida Initiative, it will probably be very similar to solutions proposed during a McCain presidency. But Mexico has also suffered McCain's tack to the right: his thoughtful instincts regarding immigration have given way to harsh border proposals while trying to shore up support from the large xenphobic contingent in his party.

Barack Obama represents a fuzzy hopefulness. Despite his mutterings against NAFTA, one gets the sense that he means it when he says that security and prosperity in the Americas begins with a "renewed strategic partnership with Mexico". Although he has never been south of the Rio Grande/Bravo, could his intelligence and his international upbringing bring a much-needed fresh perspective to bilateral relations? We'd like to think so.

Electorally, as things stand today, Mexican-Americans could very well decide the election by tipping swing states (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado) towards one or the other candidate.

Truth really is stranger than fiction

But none of this takes away from the fundamental oddity of this election, beyond the unforeseen results of the primary process. Neither candidate was born in the continental United States (Mr. Obama is the first candidate from Hawaii and Mr. McCain the first from a military base in Panama). Senator McCain is not only the oldest first-term candidate, but was also considered too far from the Republican base to be viable.

But it's the Democrat who really breaks the mold. The man's name is Barack Hussein Obama. During what fundamentalists on both sides believe to be a war between Islam and the Christian world, the potential 44th president of the United States shares his middle name with American-deposed Saddam Hussein. Although Christian, he is the son of a Kenyan Muslim, a religion professed by about 0.5% of the US population. This is one of the most jingoistic periods in modern American history, but the Obama family's nationalism is nuanced and self-aware.

Further, most media have focused on the fact that Senator Obama is black. But the fact that Barack Obama is the son of a black man and a white woman is less significant than the fact that Mr. Obama is not like the vast majority of US blacks, who have been in America for many generations. He is a second-generation American of actual (not just racial) African descent, on his father's side. To understand this, consider that the US population is 13% black and 15% Latino, but its first minority President would be the son of a non-naturalized African, an immigrant segment that is equal to about 0.3% of the US population (versus 9% of the US population that is Mexican, or Mexican-American).

In TV's "The West Wing", which filmed its final season years before the primaries, a charismatic minority Democratic primary candidate, supposedly born in 1961, exactly like Obama, beats the party establishment's candidate at the last minute. He then goes up against a centrist Republican, unloved by his base, who is haunted by his age and buoyed by his straight talk. In the series, the Democrat is a Mexican-American, played by Jimmy Smits, but except for the differences in the ethnicity of the Democratic candidate, it's uncanny.

America at its best

But beyond the curious anecdotes, this week's cover of The Economist gushes: "America at its best", with a picture of both candidates looking visionary. The truth is that the US has recently frightened a lot of people. Fortunately, the success of senator's McCain and Obama is bringing many a sigh of relief.

Agustín Barrios Gómez is President of SolutionsAbroad.com, Mexico’s on-line service and information resource for foreigners. He is a member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and is an analyst of politics in North America with a degree in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.

For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page

Return to top