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What to Make of Calderón’s First Big Mistake
March 19, 2008
President Calderón named Juan Camilo Mouriño Secretary of Government (“Gobernación”, sometimes mistakenly translated as “Secretary of the Interior”) because he trusts him. The President jealously guards his inner circle’s loyalty and this was a talented 36 year-old who shares Calderón’s vision. They both had high hopes for the opening of the energy sector because they believe that massive amounts of private investment in the oil industry would boost Mexico’s GDP growth rate by a very impressive 2 percentage points per year.
Perhaps. But they never built the social consensus necessary to achieve these reforms and, worse, Mouriño was precisely the wrong person to try to negotiate them. These errors in judgment are the first major mistake of the Calderón administration.
Bad idea
The situation had the makings of a political disaster from the beginning. Juan Camilo Mouriño was born in Spain and Mexico’s bête noir regarding the oil industry is the possibility that it might fall into “foreign” hands. He and his family have had multiple business dealings with PEMEX and he has admitted to signing contracts that benefit his family while being in positions of power. Although perhaps not illegal, this situation fits the dictionary definition of conflict of interest. Mouriño is one of the youngest ministers of Government in history, a thin ex-businessman taking a job which is mostly about experience and gravitas. His previous position as behind-the-scenes power broker was perfectly suited to both his and the President’s ambitions, but a miscalculation brought him to the most politically sensitive position in the country. Further, the previous Secretary of Government, Francisco Ramírez Acuña, whatever his shortcomings, was an effective operator who actually fit the needs of the current government surprisingly well. What can one make of this mistake?
It is possible that the President and his confidant actually believe that Mouriño is a hopeful for the presidency, an idea that most pundits consider highly improbable even in the best of circumstances. But, as political analyst Luis Pérez de las Heras points out, “if that was the plan, you make him undersecretary, giving him positive media exposure, then spring him as Secretary in 2011, when he can ride out the end of the presidency to clinch the nomination. Nobody knew Mouriño before the scandal. The only reference they have is of his involvement with the scandal, so public opinion will never give him the benefit of the doubt.” The only possible explanation for this surprising lack of political foresight is that the Calderón team is falling victim to hubris because they misunderstand the circumstances that brought them to Los Pinos.
Some have greatness thrust upon them
President Calderón’s rise to the presidency was completely unforeseen. His resignation as Secretary of Energy during the Fox presidency had been acrymonious. Many believed that his bid for the PAN candidacy was doomed because of President Fox supported his rival, Santiago Creel. Further, he seemed to lack charisma. Nevertheless, thanks to intense and effective lobbying with panistas who would determine the outcome of the internal election, he was able to secure the candidacy.
As the PAN’s presidential candidate, he faced opponents who were very different from the norm. The PRI candidate was someone with such a negative public image that he never really stood a chance, while the PRD candidate was a charismatic figure who made several mistakes that eventually led to Calderón’s victory. Therein lies the crux of the problem: the President is making the first major strategic error of his reign because he believes that he and his team won the presidency thanks to their own abilities. The truth is that the election was lost by his PRD opponent. The distinction is important because it makes the President rely on a team that is too cliquey, too inexperienced, and arrogant in uncertain circumstances.
Perception is reality
President Calderón has sabotaged his chances of passing his reform of the energy sector. This is a pity because the country would do well to rationalize its oil industry. He apparently believes that if his friend can weather the criticism, better times will be in store. He can’t and they won’t.
This is President Calderón’s perfect storm and it is of his own making. His PRD opponent had managed to maneuver himself into a political straightjacket, but the fact that Mouriño can be portrayed as a “foreign” influence-peddling enemy of Mexican oil has revived his fortunes. For many people this scandal could prove that Andrés Manuel López Obrador was right. That there really is a plutocratic elite that seeks to “steal” the oil industry from the Mexican “people” in a massive right-wing conspiracy. For the good of the country, President Calderón needs to stop making the case for him.
For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page
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