Opinion Archive

What to Make of Mexico, circa 2007

October 24, 2007

Developing countries are, by their very nature, supposed to be places in flux. They are, after all, “developing,” as opposed to an ossified “developed” world, where the implication is that things have reached a happy stasis. And yet, Mexico 2007 is a similar place to the Mexico which the old News left at the beginning of the Fox administration. Bugbears such as organized crime continue to bedevil society, while financial stability continues to underpin an extension of middle class spending habits, such as homeownership and consumer spending. On a more macro level, “developed” Mexico continues to sit uncomfortably beside “underdeveloped” Mexico, but in the 2006 elections the center held.

It’s What People Want

The truth is that in every significant area of policy, the current course is in line with what people say they want. Mexicans are loath to see PEMEX privatized, but they do want it given more autonomy; new laws reflect that. People are sick of crime, but are wary of harsh policing, which explains the two-steps-forward-one-step-back rhythm so common in prosecution. They don’t want their country arguing with the U.S. in general, but they believe their President should speak up to defend migrants and global pacifism (read: anti-Iraq War). That is how Mexico’s foreign policy has been conducted.

On an economic plane, center-right governments have been in power for over 25 years (roughly since Miguel de la Madrid), but they have allowed the bastions of the unreformed Left in the country’s public schools and universities to remain. The result is a society that is surprisingly entrepreneurial, but which still sees economics as a “zero-sum” game. The country likes its economic freedoms but wants something to be done about social inequality – without anyone having to make painful changes. That explains the status quo.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

In the Eurasia Group’s most recent index on global political risk among developing countries, Mexico came in just below Poland. It was judged more capable of withstanding both external and internal shocks than the likes of Brazil, Russia, South Africa, India and China. This is the Good side of giving most people what they want most of the time.

The Bad part is that this lack of leadership (in terms of reshaping public opinion) has brought a creeping stagnation in many areas of economic progress and the quest for the Rule of Law. In an era when the “Hindu rate of growth” (which used to be a derogatory term) is above 9% and countries such as Korea and Chile have effective legal systems, this is disappointing. Simply put, there is no consensus for growth.

The Ugly side of Mexico, circa 2007, is that violence crops up too often, both as political blackmail and as a result of basic lawlessness. Ugliness also pertains to the abuse of power and a distasteful lack of accountability. Mexicans react by going from “hopping mad” to complacent, neither of which are useful for solving problems. Thus, Mexico, circa 2007, is politically immature.

Down Mexico Way

Fortunately for ventures such as this re-launched newspaper (and my company, SolutionsAbroad.com), the current state of affairs is just fine for a growing number of English-speaking immigrants to Mexico. As the number one destination for expatriate Americans, Mexico is set to receive a percentage of the oft-quoted “70 million Baby Boomers.” This is added to a large number of professionals who work here with multinational corporations and the largest U.S. diplomatic mission in the world, outside Iraq.

In 2007, American immigrants, who are more likely “residential tourists,” consider the following when deciding to commit to Mexico: cost of living, climate, availability of domestic help, beaches and proximity/accessibility to the U.S. By the time they seriously consider a location they have made the distinction in their minds between “Mexico,” with its horrible press coverage in the U.S., and the specific location they fell in love with. That being said, Americans and Canadians are interested in a lot of different places, going from Cancún/Yucatán peninsula, through the central highlands of Guanajuato/San Miguel de Allende, along the West (Guadalajara, Ajijic/Chapala and Puerto Vallarta), all the way up Mazatlán, San Carlos, San Felipe, Puerto Peñasco (Rocky Point), Rosarito, Ensenada and down the Baja California peninsula (Loreto, La Paz, Los Cabos).

Plus ça Change

In sum, Mexico is set for a period of modest growth and slow, but fundamental change related to demographics and intra-North American migration. Change is happening underneath the splashy headlines of sporadic violence and political scandals which have become so common since the Zapatista skirmish nearly fourteen years ago.

In a little over two years Mexico will commemorate the centennial of its revolution (1910) and the bicentennial of its independence (1810). Will we get feistier again in 2010? Only if there is a radical change in public opinion.

For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page

Return to top