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What to Make of Mexico's Relative Strength in the World
February 11, 2009
To listen to the criticism published incessantly in both the foreign and domestic media, one would think that Mexico is one of the lowest-ranked countries in the world. To the chagrin of our professional Cassandras, it turns out that it is actually among the highest (at least in the developing world). Two recent publications bear this out: The Economist's "World in Figures 2008" and conservative think tank Brookings Institute's "Index of State Weakness in the Developing World".
First, the basics. Mexico is currently the 13th largest economy in the world, just above blustering, superpower-wanna-be, Russia (nuclear weapons, apparently, are Viagra for the nationalist ego). Measured in terms of purchasing power parity, we are bigger than Canada. Mexico is also the 9th largest economy in terms of services, which puts paid to the idea that this is mainly a sweatshop economy. It is also a powerhouse in manufacturing output at number 10.
Mexico City remains the second-largest urban agglomeration in the world, after Tokyo. In that same vein, according to an earlier study by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Mexico City is the 8th largest city economy, bigger than Boston, Dallas, Buenos Aires, Houston and Hong Kong, among many others.
Interestingly, Mexico has three of the fastest-growing cities above 750,000 inhabitants in the world: Tuxtla Gutiérrez (2), Tijuana (20) and Ciudad Juárez (25). This, despite the fact that Mexico's general population growth is relatively slow. Perhaps this is reflected in other cities: Puebla, with a projected population decline, is the 14th slowest-growing city in the world. Put altogether, in terms of absolute numbers, Mexico is the 11th largest country in terms of population, just below Japan.
Mexico comes highly ranked in deserts (Chihuaha's is the 7th largest) and biodiversity (5). The country is the most important recipient of remittances in the world, above India, which is more than 10 times bigger and has a larger diaspora. It is the second-most important silver producer (our former number one spot is now held by Peru). We are 5th in oil production, but, ominously for our exports, we are also a worrying 9th in oil consumption.
On the positive side, Mexico is the 8th most visited country on Earth. On the negative, we are 10th in diabetes. Perhaps that's because we are the 7th largest consumer of sugar and Monterrey is the city with the highest per capita consumption of Coca-Cola (a fact that is negligently missing in The Economist). Attesting to our patience and personal religiosity, we have the 9th lowest divorce rate. As an example of our penchant for entertainment, we are 8th in cinema attendance.
Wealth, and stability, are in the eye of the beholder
So, is Mexico a rich or poor country? Among the 183 countries surveyed, Mexico is 66th in terms of GDP per capita, but a respectable 51 in terms of human development (that puts us just below the top quintile). For all the criticism regarding income inequality, according to the CIA "World Fact Book", Mexico is more equal than Communist China, Socialist Venezuela and racially integrated Brazil.
Finally, regarding all the talk about Mexico's viability as a functioning state, one of the more interesting numbers is related to a study done by the Brookings Institute. Brookings is considered a Conservative think tank. It published an "Index of State Weakness in the Developing World", whose lack of publicity in Mexico is especially surprising given the current worries about the country's stability, and those in Washington who have foolishly brought up the spectre of a "failed state". Brookings analyzes 141 countries according to what they see as five key areas: economic, political, security, social welfare and gross national income per capita. The strongest developing country on their list is the Slovak Republic, while the weakest is Somalia. Nevertheless, Mexico comes in at a relatively strong 21st-strongest place, better than such countries as Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa. Much better even than "cool" BRIC-ish China (74) Russia (65).
Mexico's relatively strong standing in world league tables shows how important it is to put every analysis we do in context. Journalists, academics and coffee shop opinion-leaders tend to have tunnel vision. They are all prophets that play to a stagnant constituency that expects to hear the criticism that they become accustomed to.
None of these numbers are subjective evalutions of the countries they depict. But, for those who are unused to seeing the world as a whole, some of the comparisons are nothing less than shocking. In Mexico's case, specifically, it begs the question whether the country would be so incessantly criticized if it were anywhere else but next to the world's largest, most successful, economy. Of course, much of its strength probably comes from that, too.
For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page
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