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Page 16 of 82
What to Make of (My) Crisis Generation
January 28, 2009
One of your correspondent's earliest memories is of his father being given the news that the peso had gone from 12.50 to the dollar to 20.60 in 1976. Younger readers will be excused if they don't "get" the significance of this. You see, the peso had been at $12.50 for 22 years (comparable to a Mexican currency that held its own since 1987!). A few months ago, the peso was again at 12.50 to the dollar... but it would take one thousand 1970s pesos to buy a "new peso", in use since January 1993. The equivalent current exchange rate is about 13,750 pesos to the dollar, which says a lot about the economic collapses our generation has lived.
In other parts of the world, those who were born between between 1964 and 1979 are referred to as "Generation X". In Mexico, we are known as the "crisis generation". Our experience contrasts dramatically with those who came before us. They lived "the Mexican Miracle", a period of growth that averaged 7%+ per year, that created a middle class and that consolidated a nation from sea to four shining seas. It was marred by its lack of democracy, but the so-called "perfect dictatorship" delivered economic results from the late 30s to the mid-70s that we would never see again.
Devaluations were the name of the game throughout our formative years. The dollar rose 3,164% versus the peso during the presidency of Miguel de la Madrid, for example. As children, we were privy to Mexico starting a world economic crisis known as the "debt crisis" in 1982. President López Portillo, a man who had famously said that Mexico's problem was to "administer the abundance" of oil wealth, nationalized the entire banking system when oil prices fell.
Time and again we were told that the end of our world was nigh. Then came Carlos Salinas de Gortari. Despite the fact that his legitimacy was seriously questioned, he captured our imagination. Although not a member of our generation, he was only 39 when he took power and he told us that we would finally enter the ranks of the developed world. To prove it, he got us into the exclusive Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and negotiated a landmark trade agreement with the US.
By then, we were reaching working age, excited by the opportunities before us. But the bungling of the transition between the Salinas and Zedillo administrations meant that, again, we had front-row seats to another world crisis begun by our economic mismanagement. During the "Tequila" crisis of 1994/95 GDP fell 6.2%. Compare that the "mere" 1.9% projected fall in US GDP for 2009.
Our generation became cynical and many found refuge in the public, not private, sector, for all the wrong reasons. When one of ours took control of the fourth-largest political party it seemed that our generation had come into its own. But we were not up to the challenge. We turned out to be as corrupt as those whom we had criticized. Worse, our exposure to the crises of 1976, 1981/82, 1987 and 1994/95 had given us a nasty edge based on a deep-seated fear that we were one step away from destitution. So, in the words of Jim Morrison, we were going to get our kicks before the whole *bleep*-house went up in flames. This persistent sense of foreboding begat short-termism and a desire to "get ours" while we could.
That is, perhaps, the worst legacy of the multiple crises we have experienced. There is a lot of talent in our generation, but no one thinks that we will do away with corruption. We now have several governors and many top people in the Calderón team, but none are seen as moral leaders. Further, incessant rumor-mongering on behalf of the media means that everyone who participates in public life has their reputation destroyed eventually, no matter what their true actions. This, added to the fact that there is no reelection (the best and worst performers both get kicked out at the end of their terms), means that there is very little incentive to "do the right thing".
The word "crisis" is originally Greek ("krisis") and it literally means "decision". Bandied about with abandon these days, its dictionary definition is: "an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending, especially one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome".
We have drawn the wrong conclusions from the crises we have lived, so we consistently make the wrong decisions. This, our fifth major crisis, finds us at the cusp of middle age; certainly a time of opportunity to learn what lessons we missed from our crisis-filled youth.
For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page
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