Opinion Archive

What to Make of Bad Luck

April 29, 2008

It wasn't supposed to happen like this. As was pointed out in an article in The Ottawa Citizen, most public safety protocols regarding flu pandemics in North America were designed around the belief that new strains would arise in Asia, not here. This is based on history and the law of averages. With billions of people living in close proximity to animals and having access to dozens of enormous cities, it is not surprising that the last pandemic flu, in 1968, had Hong Kong as ground zero. As was seen during the SARS epidemic (which nearly reached pandemic proportions), the Chinese port is ideally suited for the propagation of infectious diseases: it is a major trading center with direct flights to everywhere and people live, literally, one on top of another. The Mexico City metropolitan area may have 30% more people, but Hong Kong's population density is nearly twice Mexico City's (5,179 people per square kilometer versus 2,784).

There are still questions regarding the "Eurasian" genetic makeup of the swine from which this strain seems to come. But the fact is that, despite cases reported in several countries around the world, Mexico City became the unlikely ground zero for this epidemic. This caught everyone off guard. The Mexican authorities are fairly well prepared for natural disasters: the country is hit by more hurricanes than anywhere else in the world and the "DN III" military-based contingencies are very good at keeping people safe. But the government, confident in the experts' opinion regarding an Asian origin to influenza mutations, did not move as quickly as many would have hoped in this case. In a big country where 8.2-level earthquakes and category 5 hurricanes are both very possible, why worry about flus that will probably come ashore in North America through "Hongcouver" or Asia-focused California? By the time these get to Mexico, the Canadians and Americans will have probably already come up with a vaccine.

The upshot is that Mexico's authorities took about one or two weeks longer than they might have to respond. White House denials to the contrary, it is very possible that President Obama was tangentially exposed to influenza during his visit. Locally, several deaths could probably have been avoided. But part of the problem is that it took so long to identify the new strain, such that health officials might reasonably have assumed that it was an odd continuation of the seasonal variety.

Once they did react, schools were cancelled on a massive scale (for the first time since the 1985 Mexico City quake) and millions of face masks were efficiently distributed. The capital's intense nightlife was put on hold and massive amounts of anti-virals were made available. You could tell that health officials were understandably confused, as the DF's government first said that everyone was to be vaccinated and then retracted its statement hours later as information came in regarding the fact that the vaccine was not 100% effective.

What is sure is that it's terrible luck. To begin with, you could feel the collective desperation of the country's massive tourism industry. They had been battling Mexico's awful (and often unfair) news coverage as a place with ubiquitous violence. Now they had to deal with this issue, a news pandemic about a weird flu outbreak. It was clear by the weekend that despite the fact that nearly half the Mexican states, including Cancún's Quintana Roo, had not been affected, people were cancelling their trips regardless. Oh, and to add insult to injury, a 5.8 Richter scale earthquake hit during the press conference of the Health Minister on Monday.

You can bet that, no matter what the outcome, and despite enormous effort, Mexico's government will be found lacking. This is mainly because both inside the country, and outside of it, there is nothing that the government can do right. Despite the fact that both the leftist city government and the right-leaning federal government were democratically elected, they still lack credibility.

This is especially curious because, whether during the influenza scare, or during a hurricane, people follow the government's instructions. We are left with the strange situation that people are obedient and responsible in their actions, but dismissive and inflammatory with their words.

Until now, the aggressively negative nature of Mexico's media coverage has, perhaps, cost the country a few billion dollars in tourist revenue. Despite the scaremongering, it has probably not cost the country too much in terms of international cooperation; Mexico seems to have the trust of the US government and international organizations. Nevertheless, the perennial inability of the country to handle its serious public image problem (once again, both within and without) is a general drag on its economy and its people. And, with this recent spate of terrible luck, this majority-Christian nation is being reminded that God only helps those who help themselves.

For the latest thought-provoking article by Agustin Barrios Gomez please go to our Opinion Column page

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