Sam Speaks

Oaxaca and the State of the Nation

November 2006

When the new President is sworn in on December 1st, he will inherit a country whose macroeconomy is stable (and growing), but with a series of problems that vary greatly from region to region. Today, within Mexico there are areas of high growth and low instability, such as the central “bajío” region, Veracruz, Aguascalientes, etc., areas of narco-violence (the border and Acapulco), and places of political instability and low growth, such as Oaxaca.

What’s this about the “two Mexicos”? Mexico has 31 states and 1 Federal District. From north to south there are large ethnic and racial differences among the states. Some states, mostly in the southeast have a high concentration of indigenous peoples (Mexico’s Native Americans), while others have more European blood (mostly in the North). Some states, like Chiapas, resemble their Central American neighbors, while some, like Nuevo León, look more like South Texas. While this reality has now become part of the cliché of the “two Mexicos” that voted so differently in the July federal elections, there is no hard and fast rule, as any visit to the shantytowns of the border will attest. Nevertheless, it is true that Mexico’s poorest states, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero, are in the more indigenous South. At the same time, these places are often portrayed as being “shackled” to their past.

So, is Mexico in crisis? The upshot of these large regional differences is that you can see the glass half full or half empty. The financial markets (and the notoriously optimistic President Fox) are seeing it half full. The chattering classes are seeing it as half empty. There are official travel warnings to those areas that are affected, but if you visit the spectacular colonial towns of Guanajuato, Querétaro, Zacatecas, San Miguel de Allende, and Mérida you would find peace and security. The same goes for the border states of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas with the notable exceptions of their border regions. Visiting Chihuahua’s capital, Chihuahua city, for example, it is hard to believe that it is in the same country (let alone state) as Ciudad “Dodge City” Juarez 200 miles to the north, across from El Paso, Texas.

Oaxaca is currently the reddest of the red flags. It is the state with the highest number of Native Americans and it has always been ruled by strongmen who take advantage of a poor and ignorant populace to do what they want with impunity. Think early twentieth-century Louisiana with more historical baggage. The latest governor, Ulises Ruiz, was a priista political operator who inherited the state thanks to the political maneuverings of failed presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo and who was never seen as an effective cacique. Worst, he has always had powerful enemies. When they saw blood, in the form of the teachers’ union mess, they pounced.

Who’s to blame? Analysts have cited as part of the problem the fact that Mexico’s interregnum (the period between the elections and the taking of power) is much too long. In the U.S., the President used to be sworn on March 4th until the 20th amendment to the Constitution reduced the “lame duck” period to January 20th. That means that Mexico must wait 5 months before installing its new leader, while the U.S. awaits a mere 11 weeks. Sam acknowledges that there are power vacuum issues, but that isn’t the real issue…

Social crime pays. The biggest problem is that social blackmail (the use of the masses to get concessions/payments from the government) is good business. There are enough people who are sufficiently angry to provide the canon fodder for pretty much anything as long as you bring out the “victimization” flag. Further, these mini-insurgencies tend to be self-perpetuating. That is, what began as a demand for higher teacher salaries was quickly hijacked by fringe opposition groups (the “APPO”) because they saw the spark that could light the fire to burn their political enemies. They were right. Independently of his resigning, or not, Governor Ruiz is politically dead. At what cost, you ask? What does it matter when you, the protestor, believe that you stand for “social justice” (no matter how convoluted)?

So, what state is the nation in? Generally, it’s OK. Without belittling the problems in Oaxaca, when these things have happened before in the region, money has been shoveled into the place and tranquility restored. Those who visited a Zapatista-held San Cristobal de las Casas in 1994 wouldn’t recognize the spruced up plazas and first-rate roads that crisscross the state today. If you’re up for a little speculation, this is probably a good time to buy real estate in the downtown area of Oaxaca’s architecturally striking capital city. If Sam’s right, there will be a clean-up and a good PR campaign to get the tourists back after the conflict is over. In the meantime….

Take Oaxaca in stride. There’s a reason that Mexico, with all of its advantages and its tremendously hard-working people, is not a fully developed country. It’s because some of the basic cornerstones of a liberal democracy, including the rule of law, are not in place. It is because ancestral conflicts play themselves out in different guises even today, so being here means swallowing a lot of “if onlys.”

Sam’s advice is to enjoy the majority of Mexico that is peacefully and pleasurably available to you and avoid the Oaxacas whenever they rear their incendiary heads. Take a road trip from Mexico City, through Querétaro to the Bajío region and Michoacán. Visit peaceful La Paz, growing Manzanillo, bustling Monterrey and colorful Veracruz. Celebrate the fact that the sky didn’t fall on Cancun despite the direst warnings for the hurricane season. Enjoy a Cuernavaca that is now safer than in the recent past. In terms of attitude, it’s not necessary to be cynical or sanguine, but it is essential to keep things in perspective.

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